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Growing anxieties have surfaced that South Sudan may plunge back into full-scale civil war amid a politically charged court case involving suspended Vice-President Riek Machar.

Rising Tensions

Machar's political faction urges “regime change” subsequent to he was charged with murder, treason, and crimes against humanity.

His supporters has labeled the case as a “political witch-hunt” aimed at undermine a 2018 peace agreement that halted a five-year internal conflict.

Concurrently, extra soldiers from neighboring Uganda are stationed strategic locations to strengthen the incumbent government authority.

Contextual Foundation

This country broke free from Sudan after decades of struggle under the key political group.

In 2013, conflict broke out when President Salva Kiir dismissed Machar as vice-president, claiming planning an overthrow.

The conflict resulted in an estimated significant loss of life and displaced over two million people.

Ongoing Situation

Tensions flared in March after skirmishes broke out involving rebel forces and state forces.

Subsequently, Machar and associates put under house arrest on allegations of attempting to incite insurrection.

SPLM-IO then called the government as a “dictatorship” and called for “a new government”.

Peace Deal Status

Key aspects of the 2018 peace agreement have not been executed, such as the unification of opposition and state troops.

A proposed tribunal to adjudicate those responsible for atrocities has not been established.

Voting scheduled for recent years have been postponed, and a new constitution has not been drafted.

Corruption Reports

An international investigation accuses political leaders of siphoning off billions in resource earnings.

Resources meant for healthcare, education, and infrastructure were allegedly directed toward questionable projects.

State authorities disputes these claims, citing national challenges to conflict, climate issues, and falling oil prices.

Possible Developments

Analysts warn that the climate might escalate into a return to war, particularly amid the presence of Ugandan soldiers.

The war in Sudan introduces additional risk to a precarious environment.

A timeline has been set for Machar’s trial, but actions point to all parties are preparing for a lengthy confrontation.